Foley surges in governor's race poll; Blumenthal holds comfortable lead
Published 11:03 am, Monday, November 1, 2010
The Connecticut governor's race between Republican Tom Foley and Democrat Dan Malloy is now too close to call, while Democrat Richard Blumenthal still holds a substantial lead over Republican Linda McMahon in the U.S. Senate race, a new poll shows.
The Quinnipiac University poll shows Foley has overcome a narrow Malloy lead in previous surveys. He now receives the support of 48 percent of likely voters compared to 45 percent for Democrat Dan Malloy. In an Oct. 26 poll, Malloy led by 48-43 percent Malloy.
McMahon has narrowed the gap slightly in the last week but still trails Blumenthal 53-44 percent among likely voters, according to the poll released today. This compares to a 54-42 percent Blumenthal lead in an Oct. 26 likely voter survey by the independent poll.
In the governor's race, Foley leads 89-7 percent among Republicans while Malloy leads 88-9 percent among Democrats. Independent voters shift from 50-41 percent for Malloy last week to 55-33 percent for Foley today. Another 6 percent of likely voters are undecided and 11 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
Men back Foley 51-43 percent, while women back Malloy 48-43 percent. Malloy gets a split 44-41 percent favorability from Connecticut likely voters, compared to 47-34 percent last week. Foley's 48-34 percent favorability compares to 45-33 percent last week.
"The late deciders are breaking for Tom Foley," said Quinnipiac University poll director Douglas Schwartz. "There has been a big shift among independents in the final week of the campaign toward the Republican. Dan Malloy's unfavorables have risen to the point where he gets a mixed favorability rating for the first time.
"For Foley to win, he needs to win the independent vote by a substantial margin, which he is now doing for the first time. But this race is too close to call. With 6 percent still undecided there is still room for movement."
In today's Senate survey, Blumenthal leads 93-6 percent among Democrats while McMahon is ahead 87- 3 percent among Republicans. Independent voters, who went 56-40 percent for Blumenthal last week, now tip 49-44 percent for McMahon. Only 3 percent are undecided and 5 percent of voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind.
Women back Blumenthal 61-36 percent. Men go to McMahon 50-46 percent.
"Linda McMahon's mini-surge may be too little, too late," Schwartz said. "Independent voters, who have been very volatile in this election season, are shifting back to the Republican candidates in both the Senate and governor's races."
From Oct. 25-31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 930 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.